Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics Redux

Earlier this week, I did a column on the differences between official government statistics and those available at Shadow Government Statistics, where changes to the official reporting methods over the last couple of decades are backed out to present figures that are comparable to those from earlier times.

Now, thanks to the fine efforts of one of the posters at the previously-mentioned Absolute Write Politics and Current Events forum, we have survey numbers courtesy of Gallup that appear to back up ShadowStat's assertions. Here's the pertinent chart again.

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. - Mark Twain

The official unemployment rate is 8.3%, the official inflation rate is 3% and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is growing at a rate of 2.8%. So why does it seem like you know more unemployed people than the statistics would call for? Why does it seem that prices are increasing faster than the official inflation rate? And why does it seem that the economy is moribund, when the GDP is on the rise?

Does your personal experience fall more in line with an unemployment rate of 22%, an inflation rate of 11%, and a negative GDP growth rate of -2.5%? Don't be surprised. It's not your perception that's off; it's the official government statistics.

If the figures in the second paragraph seem more realistic to you than the official figures in the first, read on and we'll discover just why those official numbers look so rosy.